Published in the open.
A curated universe, not a search of every listed security. Every name a book can hold is on this page with the reason it can earn weight and the conviction score that sets its size. If it is not here, no premise will produce it.
160
names
26
themes
3
ballast instruments
1 September 2026
last reviewed
Compute buildout
Compute is the binding constraint on artificial intelligence, not model design.
Build this bookNVDANvidia
Sits on the critical path of nearly every frontier training run.
Equity · $7.24 · $52B · conviction 97/100
TSMTaiwan Semiconductor
Leading-edge dies are fabricated here or they are not fabricated.
Equity · $76.43 · $58B · conviction 93/100
ASMLASML
Sole supplier of EUV lithography; there is no second source.
Equity · $337.84 · $287B · conviction 88/100
AVGOBroadcom
Custom accelerators for buyers who want off a single vendor's price list.
Equity · $145.87 · $211B · conviction 84/100
MUMicron
High-bandwidth memory is the second bottleneck after the die.
Equity · $80.69 · $2.72T · conviction 80/100
VRTVertiv
Power and cooling inside the rack, where density fails first.
Equity · $17.34 · $5B · conviction 74/100
ANETArista Networks
The switching fabric between accelerators.
Equity · $18.34 · $2.20T · conviction 69/100
SMHSemiconductor ETF
Broad exposure for the part that is not a single-name bet.
ETF · $1327.97 · $367B · conviction 62/100
SMCISuper Micro Computer
Integration and assembly — real volume, thinnest moat in the chain.
Equity · $3.76 · $330B · conviction 48/100
Grid and load growth
Electricity demand grows for the first time in twenty years, and the grid cannot be built quickly.
Build this bookGEVGE Vernova
Turbines and grid equipment; the order book is the constraint.
Equity · $513.62 · $19B · conviction 91/100
CEGConstellation Energy
Existing baseload under contracts signed before the shortage.
Equity · $899.87 · $19B · conviction 89/100
VSTVistra
Merchant generation with direct exposure to power prices.
Equity · $598.27 · $475B · conviction 84/100
ETNEaton
Electrical distribution sits between every new load and the wire.
Equity · $9.54 · $73B · conviction 81/100
NEENextEra Energy
The largest renewables pipeline, with a regulated utility underneath.
Equity · $1335.44 · $34B · conviction 77/100
PWRQuanta Services
Someone has to physically build the transmission; this is who.
Equity · $146.72 · $240B · conviction 75/100
XLUUtilities Select Sector ETF
The sector floor, for the part that is simply more electricity.
ETF · $216.11 · $2.20T · conviction 58/100
FSLRFirst Solar
Domestic panel supply, exposed to policy in both directions.
Equity · $129.20 · $5B · conviction 54/100
Nuclear restart
Firm carbon-free baseload becomes acceptable again because nothing else clears the demand.
Build this bookCCJCameco
Fuel is upstream of every reactor, running or planned.
Equity · $1052.88 · $228B · conviction 92/100
BWXTBWX Technologies
Naval and government reactor components; revenue that already exists.
Equity · $314.67 · $15B · conviction 89/100
LEUCentrus Energy
Domestic enrichment, the actual bottleneck for advanced fuel.
Equity · $23.89 · $37B · conviction 85/100
CEGConstellation Energy
The largest existing fleet; restarts beat new builds on time.
Equity · $899.87 · $19B · conviction 83/100
VSTVistra
Nuclear capacity inside a merchant power book.
Equity · $598.27 · $475B · conviction 76/100
URAUranium ETF
Basket exposure to miners without picking which deposit works.
ETF · $82.63 · $1B · conviction 64/100
SMRNuScale Power
The purest expression of the thesis and the least proven.
Equity · $137.64 · $66B · conviction 52/100
Healthspan
Medicine shifts from treating disease late to extending the years a person stays healthy.
Build this bookLLYEli Lilly
The broadest metabolic franchise and deepest follow-on pipeline.
Equity · $370.14 · $2.38T · conviction 93/100
NVONovo Nordisk
The other half of the metabolic duopoly, with more pricing exposure.
Equity · $32.58 · $10B · conviction 86/100
VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals
Genetic medicine that already generates cash, not just readouts.
Equity · $71.80 · $1.30T · conviction 84/100
ILMNIllumina
Sequencing is the instrument layer under everything genetic.
Equity · $10.94 · $34B · conviction 79/100
REGNRegeneron
An antibody platform that has produced beyond one franchise.
Equity · $185.13 · $5B · conviction 75/100
TMOThermo Fisher Scientific
Tools and reagents; paid whether or not a trial reads out.
Equity · $166.52 · $16B · conviction 72/100
XBIBiotech ETF
Spread across small-cap biotech, where single-name risk is brutal.
ETF · $8.62 · $69B · conviction 61/100
CRSPCRISPR Therapeutics
Approved editing therapy, tiny commercial base, wide outcomes.
Equity · $247.42 · $463B · conviction 49/100
Physical labour automation
Machines that manipulate the physical world become cheap enough to replace repetitive human labour.
Build this bookROKRockwell Automation
Factory integration is where deployment actually happens.
Equity · $112.05 · $200B · conviction 88/100
SYMSymbotic
Warehouse automation already installed and running at scale.
Equity · $1061.14 · $60B · conviction 85/100
TSLATesla
The clearest public humanoid programme, inside a business that is not one.
Equity · $111.95 · $1.66T · conviction 80/100
NVDANvidia
Simulation and on-robot inference; paid whichever robot wins.
Equity · $7.24 · $52B · conviction 78/100
TERTeradyne
Collaborative arms plus test equipment for the rest of the chain.
Equity · $527.42 · $2.94T · conviction 74/100
ISRGIntuitive Surgical
Proof that precision robotics can hold a monopoly for two decades.
Equity · $124.78 · $260B · conviction 69/100
BOTZRobotics & AI ETF
Broad exposure without a bet on form factor.
ETF · $417.63 · $468B · conviction 60/100
Last-mile logistics
The final mile of delivery is automated and re-priced, because it is where most of the cost sits.
Build this bookUPSUnited Parcel Service
The densest delivery network; automation lands here first.
Equity · $224.27 · $85B · conviction 88/100
AMZNAmazon
Runs the largest private logistics network and its own robotics arm.
Equity · $150.58 · $58B · conviction 86/100
SYMSymbotic
Automates the warehouse that feeds every route.
Equity · $1061.14 · $60B · conviction 82/100
GXOGXO Logistics
Pure-play contract logistics, buying automation as a service.
Equity · $137.45 · $197B · conviction 79/100
FDXFedEx
Network scale with more freight exposure and slower change.
Equity · $525.54 · $43B · conviction 74/100
ZBRAZebra Technologies
Scanning and tracking hardware in every depot.
Equity · $834.61 · $2.77T · conviction 68/100
IYTTransportation ETF
Sector exposure without picking a carrier.
ETF · $423.17 · $7B · conviction 56/100
Orbital logistics
Launch becomes cheap and routine enough that orbit turns into infrastructure rather than an event.
Build this bookRKLBRocket Lab
The only listed pure-play with an operating launch cadence.
Equity · $1153.67 · $45B · conviction 92/100
ASTSAST SpaceMobile
Direct-to-phone connectivity; enormous market, unproven at scale.
Equity · $5.75 · $228B · conviction 86/100
PLPlanet Labs
Imaging as a subscription rather than a hardware sale.
Equity · $5.98 · $71B · conviction 77/100
LUNRIntuitive Machines
Lunar delivery contracts, dependent on one customer.
Equity · $95.13 · $30B · conviction 70/100
LMTLockheed Martin
Space revenue attached to a business that survives a slow decade.
Equity · $91.81 · $599B · conviction 64/100
IRDMIridium Communications
An operating constellation with real cash flow today.
Equity · $1199.14 · $50B · conviction 61/100
ARKXSpace Exploration ETF
Diversification where single-name failure is common.
ETF · $791.68 · $18B · conviction 55/100
Error-corrected quantum
The real milestone is logical, error-corrected qubits, and the first to reach them takes a market with no second prize.
Build this bookIONQIonQ
Trapped ion, deepest balance sheet, clearest contract visibility.
Equity · $83.08 · $493B · conviction 90/100
RGTIRigetti Computing
Superconducting hardware with a large-vendor partnership behind it.
Equity · $41.33 · $32B · conviction 84/100
QBTSD-Wave Quantum
Annealing is commercially earlier, aimed at optimisation today.
Equity · $111.89 · $31B · conviction 79/100
IBMIBM
A serious roadmap attached to a business that pays you to wait.
Equity · $1263.26 · $2B · conviction 63/100
HONHoneywell
Holds the largest stake in a private trapped-ion competitor.
Equity · $16.86 · $2.55T · conviction 60/100
QUBTQuantum Computing Inc.
The most experimental of the four and most dilution-prone.
Equity · $437.13 · $29B · conviction 58/100
QTUMQuantum Computing ETF
Basket exposure, because which architecture wins is unknown.
ETF · $1149.06 · $8B · conviction 57/100
Rearmament
Defence spending rises structurally, and the money moves toward attritable, software-defined systems.
Build this bookPLTRPalantir
The software layer for targeting and logistics, priced accordingly.
Equity · $210.94 · $3B · conviction 87/100
NOCNorthrop Grumman
Strategic programmes with visibility measured in decades.
Equity · $102.16 · $7B · conviction 84/100
KTOSKratos Defense
Attritable systems — the doctrine shift, in one company.
Equity · $718.80 · $13B · conviction 82/100
LMTLockheed Martin
The largest incumbent; slowest to change, hardest to displace.
Equity · $91.81 · $599B · conviction 79/100
AVAVAeroVironment
Small unmanned systems already in field use.
Equity · $1100.21 · $1.12T · conviction 78/100
RTXRTX
Munitions and missile defence, where restocking is happening.
Equity · $592.86 · $83B · conviction 73/100
ITAAerospace & Defense ETF
The sector floor, without predicting which programme survives.
ETF · $58.45 · $157B · conviction 58/100
Water scarcity
Fresh water becomes the constraint that adaptation spending is actually organised around.
Build this bookXYLXylem
Pumps, metering and treatment; paid on every upgrade cycle.
Equity · $939.62 · $39B · conviction 90/100
AWKAmerican Water Works
The largest regulated water utility, consolidating small systems.
Equity · $1246.38 · $7B · conviction 86/100
VLTOVeralto
Water analytics and quality instrumentation.
Equity · $49.60 · $5B · conviction 78/100
WTRGEssential Utilities
Regulated water and gas; slower, cheaper, less crowded.
Equity · $117.10 · $68B · conviction 74/100
ECLEcolab
Industrial water efficiency, sold as an operating cost saving.
Equity · $383.32 · $6B · conviction 71/100
PHOWater Resources ETF
Basket exposure to a theme with no obvious single winner.
ETF · $1141.42 · $35B · conviction 59/100
Tokenised markets
Traditional assets move onto public ledgers, and the rails that carry them collect the fee.
Build this bookCOINCoinbase
The regulated on-ramp with the widest institutional footprint.
Equity · $169.56 · $19B · conviction 90/100
CRCLCircle
Stablecoin issuance is the clearest revenue line in the sector.
Equity · $530.30 · $371B · conviction 87/100
HOODRobinhood Markets
Retail distribution plus a chain of its own for tokenised equities.
Equity · $158.06 · $247B · conviction 83/100
ETHEthereum
Settlement layer where most tokenised assets currently live.
Crypto · $14.04 · $2.26T · conviction 80/100
BTCBitcoin
The reserve asset of the sector; correlated to it, not a bet on rails.
Crypto · $1326.56 · $2.87T · conviction 70/100
BLKBlackRock
The largest issuer moving funds on-chain.
Equity · $81.17 · $153B · conviction 68/100
CMECME Group
The incumbent venue; wins slowly if the transition is orderly.
Equity · $80.88 · $25B · conviction 60/100
Media consolidation
Streaming consolidates into a handful of profitable players and the rest are absorbed or wound down.
Build this bookNFLXNetflix
The only scaled streamer profitable through the whole cycle.
Equity · $497.86 · $83B · conviction 90/100
DISDisney
Library depth and parks cash flow to fund the transition.
Equity · $283.58 · $12B · conviction 82/100
SPOTSpotify
The same consolidation logic, playing out earlier in audio.
Equity · $764.10 · $1B · conviction 78/100
CMCSAComcast
Distribution plus content, priced as if neither works.
Equity · $107.62 · $134B · conviction 68/100
WBDWarner Bros. Discovery
The most likely to be bought rather than to buy.
Equity · $83.90 · $6B · conviction 64/100
LYVLive Nation
Live experience is the part of entertainment that cannot be streamed.
Equity · $446.16 · $468B · conviction 61/100
Banking and credit
Deposit franchises and private credit take share as regulated lending retreats from the middle market.
Build this bookJPMJPMorgan Chase
The deposit franchise everything else is measured against.
Equity · $452.16 · $416B · conviction 88/100
BXBlackstone
The largest alternative manager; fee streams over cyclical balance sheet.
Equity · $378.28 · $162B · conviction 85/100
ARESAres Management
The purest listed expression of private credit growth.
Equity · $14.81 · $45B · conviction 82/100
KKRKKR
Alternative assets with more balance-sheet exposure than peers.
Equity · $307.81 · $500B · conviction 76/100
GSGoldman Sachs
Advisory and markets, geared to the transaction cycle.
Equity · $190.96 · $6B · conviction 73/100
XLFFinancial Select Sector ETF
Sector exposure without picking which balance sheet is clean.
ETF · $169.19 · $44B · conviction 57/100
Housing shortage
A structural housing shortage persists, and the money accrues to builders, materials and rental owners.
Build this bookDHID.R. Horton
The largest builder by volume, aimed at entry-level demand.
Equity · $77.99 · $134B · conviction 88/100
LENLennar
Scale plus a land-light model that reduces cycle risk.
Equity · $8.61 · $2B · conviction 85/100
BLDRBuilders FirstSource
Materials and components; paid on starts, not on prices.
Equity · $447.85 · $2.60T · conviction 80/100
INVHInvitation Homes
Owns the rental side of the same shortage.
Equity · $1315.42 · $178B · conviction 76/100
HDHome Depot
Repair and remodel spend when people cannot move.
Equity · $48.09 · $395B · conviction 70/100
ITBHome Construction ETF
Sector exposure across builders and suppliers.
ETF · $63.88 · $926B · conviction 57/100
Critical minerals
Supply of the metals that electrification depends on cannot expand as fast as demand for them.
Build this bookFCXFreeport-McMoRan
The largest listed copper pure-play with expandable assets.
Equity · $160.96 · $12B · conviction 90/100
MPMP Materials
The only meaningful rare earth supply chain outside China.
Equity · $306.70 · $30B · conviction 86/100
SCCOSouthern Copper
Long-life low-cost copper reserves.
Equity · $367.84 · $52B · conviction 80/100
ALBAlbemarle
Lithium at scale, fully exposed to the price cycle.
Equity · $5.76 · $7B · conviction 74/100
BHPBHP Group
Diversified miner; slower upside, far more durable.
Equity · $24.31 · $6B · conviction 70/100
COPXCopper Miners ETF
Basket exposure without single-mine risk.
ETF · $283.73 · $3B · conviction 58/100
Cyber defence
Security spending grows regardless of the budget cycle because the attack surface keeps expanding.
Build this bookPANWPalo Alto Networks
The broadest platform consolidation story in the sector.
Equity · $41.79 · $16B · conviction 89/100
CRWDCrowdStrike
Endpoint agent with the widest telemetry footprint.
Equity · $554.98 · $2.13T · conviction 87/100
ZSZscaler
Network access rebuilt for a world with no perimeter.
Equity · $4.26 · $16B · conviction 80/100
FTNTFortinet
Hardware-anchored, cheaper, slower growing.
Equity · $130.15 · $58B · conviction 74/100
OKTAOkta
Identity is the control plane once the perimeter is gone.
Equity · $70.85 · $3B · conviction 70/100
BUGCybersecurity ETF
Basket exposure in a sector prone to single-name blowups.
ETF · $91.05 · $396B · conviction 57/100
Payments rewiring
Payment rails are rebuilt around real-time settlement and the incumbent toll is renegotiated.
Build this bookVVisa
The toll booth; wins on volume even when rates are squeezed.
Equity · $79.86 · $16B · conviction 86/100
MAMastercard
The same toll with more exposure to cross-border growth.
Equity · $176.07 · $57B · conviction 84/100
ADYEYAdyen
Single-platform acquiring, taking share from legacy processors.
Equity · $76.85 · $2.87T · conviction 80/100
CRCLCircle
Stablecoin settlement as the credible new rail.
Equity · $530.30 · $371B · conviction 76/100
FIFiserv
Merchant and bank infrastructure, cheap and unloved.
Equity · $65.94 · $304B · conviction 70/100
PYPLPayPal
Distribution without a durable rail of its own.
Equity · $16.77 · $2B · conviction 63/100
Manufacturing relocation
Manufacturing moves out of one dominant country, and India and South-East Asia absorb the largest share.
Build this bookINDAIndia Large-Cap ETF
The broadest listed access to Indian equities.
ETF · $745.39 · $14B · conviction 89/100
SMINIndia Small-Cap ETF
Domestic manufacturing exposure the large caps do not carry.
ETF · $92.16 · $171B · conviction 83/100
EWWMexico ETF
Nearshoring for North American demand.
ETF · $1188.08 · $8B · conviction 76/100
HDBHDFC Bank
Credit growth is the cleanest proxy for domestic expansion.
Equity · $94.37 · $69B · conviction 74/100
EWYSouth Korea ETF
The supplier tier that relocates alongside assembly.
ETF · $136.62 · $344B · conviction 72/100
EEMEmerging Markets ETF
The floor, for the part of the thesis that is simply not one country.
ETF · $147.44 · $7B · conviction 58/100
Food and agriculture
Yield growth slows while demand rises, so the value moves to inputs, seeds and processing.
Build this bookDEDeere
Equipment plus precision agriculture software on top of it.
Equity · $461.41 · $5B · conviction 88/100
CTVACorteva
Seed genetics and crop protection, the actual yield lever.
Equity · $158.05 · $74B · conviction 86/100
NTRNutrien
Fertiliser at scale, fully exposed to the price cycle.
Equity · $507.99 · $77B · conviction 78/100
ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland
Processing and trading; paid on volume, not on price.
Equity · $481.71 · $46B · conviction 72/100
MOSMosaic
Phosphate and potash, the most cyclical link in the chain.
Equity · $57.67 · $24B · conviction 66/100
DBAAgriculture Fund
Direct soft-commodity exposure without an operating company.
ETF · $58.04 · $191B · conviction 56/100
Climate risk repricing
Insurers reprice physical climate risk faster than anyone else, and that repricing is where the earnings are.
Build this bookRNRRenaissanceRe
Pure reinsurance exposure to a hard pricing cycle.
Equity · $808.35 · $51B · conviction 88/100
EGEverest Group
Reinsurance and primary, with reserve depth.
Equity · $267.37 · $79B · conviction 84/100
CBChubb
Disciplined commercial underwriting through the cycle.
Equity · $160.13 · $417B · conviction 79/100
TRVTravelers
Personal and commercial property, more rate-regulated.
Equity · $52.93 · $57B · conviction 72/100
AONAon
Brokerage earns the fee whichever way pricing moves.
Equity · $522.62 · $32B · conviction 68/100
KIEInsurance ETF
Sector exposure across underwriters and brokers.
ETF · $515.65 · $2B · conviction 55/100
Attention and brands
Attention keeps concentrating in a few platforms, and brands pay whatever those platforms charge.
Build this bookMETAMeta Platforms
The largest attention pool with the deepest ad stack.
Equity · $39.54 · $3B · conviction 89/100
GOOGLAlphabet
Search plus video; intent and attention in one company.
Equity · $50.71 · $96B · conviction 86/100
AMZNAmazon
Retail media is the fastest-growing ad business in the market.
Equity · $150.58 · $58B · conviction 80/100
TTDThe Trade Desk
The independent buy side, squeezed between the giants.
Equity · $273.45 · $95B · conviction 74/100
SHOPShopify
The merchant layer that all of that traffic lands on.
Equity · $159.34 · $2.96T · conviction 70/100
NKENike
A brand strong enough to pay the toll and still hold margin.
Equity · $77.91 · $2.75T · conviction 60/100
Software after agents
Software pricing shifts from seats to outcomes as agents do work that used to require a licence per person.
Build this bookMSFTMicrosoft
Owns the workflow, the model access and the distribution.
Equity · $194.26 · $33B · conviction 90/100
NOWServiceNow
The workflow system of record most exposed to agent pricing.
Equity · $396.10 · $3B · conviction 86/100
CRMSalesforce
The largest seat-based base, and the most to lose or gain.
Equity · $36.91 · $374B · conviction 78/100
SNOWSnowflake
Agents need governed data; this is where it sits.
Equity · $132.49 · $2B · conviction 76/100
DDOGDatadog
Consumption-priced already, so the model shift helps.
Equity · $116.77 · $3B · conviction 72/100
IGVSoftware ETF
Sector exposure while the pricing question resolves.
ETF · $44.17 · $73B · conviction 56/100
Experience spending
Discretionary spending keeps shifting from goods to experiences, and the supply of experiences is fixed.
Build this bookBKNGBooking Holdings
The demand aggregator; earns the fee whichever hotel wins.
Equity · $156.41 · $336B · conviction 88/100
MARMarriott International
Asset-light franchising with global rate exposure.
Equity · $169.42 · $349B · conviction 82/100
RCLRoyal Caribbean
Fixed berth supply and the highest operating leverage in travel.
Equity · $167.62 · $49B · conviction 78/100
LYVLive Nation
Owns venues, ticketing and promotion of the same event.
Equity · $446.16 · $468B · conviction 76/100
ABNBAirbnb
Supply that expands without capital, which cuts both ways.
Equity · $198.80 · $221B · conviction 72/100
DALDelta Air Lines
Premium cabin mix in the most capital-intensive part of travel.
Equity · $274.98 · $1.67T · conviction 64/100
Ageing societies
Developed populations age faster than their systems adapt, and the spending follows the demographics.
Build this bookUNHUnitedHealth Group
The largest managed-care book aimed at the retiring cohort.
Equity · $287.71 · $45B · conviction 86/100
ABTAbbott Laboratories
Devices and diagnostics used more with every decade of age.
Equity · $233.57 · $7B · conviction 82/100
SYKStryker
Orthopaedics; the demand curve is literally demographic.
Equity · $555.27 · $48B · conviction 80/100
WELLWelltower
Senior housing, where the supply pipeline is thin.
Equity · $320.21 · $2.65T · conviction 78/100
METMetLife
Annuities and retirement products at scale.
Equity · $235.58 · $274B · conviction 68/100
XLVHealth Care Select Sector ETF
Sector exposure across payers, devices and pharma.
ETF · $11.75 · $5B · conviction 56/100
Storage and flexibility
Intermittent generation makes storage and demand flexibility more valuable than more generation.
Build this bookFLNCFluence Energy
Pure-play grid storage integration.
Equity · $189.89 · $32B · conviction 88/100
TSLATesla
Energy storage deployments now grow faster than the car business.
Equity · $111.95 · $1.66T · conviction 84/100
ENPHEnphase Energy
Distributed storage and inverters at the household level.
Equity · $163.19 · $422B · conviction 74/100
ETNEaton
The switchgear that makes flexibility possible on the grid.
Equity · $9.54 · $73B · conviction 72/100
EOSEEos Energy
Non-lithium chemistry; higher risk, different supply chain.
Equity · $84.99 · $172B · conviction 60/100
LITBattery Tech ETF
Basket exposure across chemistry and geography.
ETF · $448.33 · $7B · conviction 56/100
Skills and training
Formal credentials matter less than demonstrable skills, and the spending moves to whoever can certify them.
Build this bookCOURCoursera
University-branded credentials with corporate distribution.
Equity · $482.96 · $331B · conviction 84/100
DUOLDuolingo
Consumer habit loop that no institution has replicated.
Equity · $1372.85 · $5B · conviction 86/100
LRNStride
Public funding attached to online K-12 enrolment.
Equity · $817.03 · $6B · conviction 76/100
ATGEAdtalem Global Education
Healthcare workforce training where the shortage is measurable.
Equity · $272.37 · $5B · conviction 70/100
PSOPearson
Assessment and certification, the part that is hardest to displace.
Equity · $81.15 · $46B · conviction 68/100
CHGGChegg
The clearest example of a model that language models undercut.
Equity · $340.47 · $190B · conviction 42/100