Compare

Two beliefs, and the distance between them.

State a claim and its rival. What both books hold is the part that does not depend on which of them is right — and what only one holds is what you are actually betting on.

Enter to compare

Premise A

Machines that manipulate the physical world become cheap enough to replace repetitive human labour.

Physical labour automationAggressive90%

ROK20%

SYM18.1%

TSLA15.3%

NVDA14.2%

TER12.3%

ISRG10.1%

IEF10%

Open this book

Premise B

The final mile of delivery is automated and re-priced, because it is where most of the cost sits.

Last-mile logisticsModerate40%

UPS18.3%

AMZN17.1%

SYM15%

GXO13.5%

FDX11.2%

ZBRA8.9%

SGOV16%

Open this book

15%

held by both books

names in common

only in A

only in B

Both hold

Not a bet on either claim.

SYM18.1% / 15%

Only A

What you own if A is right and B is not.

ROK20%

TSLA15.3%

NVDA14.2%

TER12.3%

ISRG10.1%

IEF10%

Only B

And the mirror of it.

UPS18.3%

AMZN17.1%

GXO13.5%

FDX11.2%

ZBRA8.9%

SGOV16%

A above, B below