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Two beliefs, and the distance between them.

State a claim and its rival. What both books hold is the part that does not depend on which of them is right — and what only one holds is what you are actually betting on.

A
B
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Premise A

Compute is the binding constraint on artificial intelligence, not model design.

Compute buildoutAggressive54%
NVDA20.5%
TSM18.3%
ASML15.7%
AVGO13.8%
MU12%
VRT9.7%
SGOV10%
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Premise B

Electricity demand grows for the first time in twenty years, and the grid cannot be built quickly.

Grid and load growthModerate54%
GEV17.9%
CEG16.9%
VST14.4%
ETN13%
NEE11.3%
PWR10.5%
SGOV16%
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10%
held by both books
1
names in common
6
only in A
6
only in B

Both hold

Not a bet on either claim.

SGOV10% / 16%

Only A

What you own if A is right and B is not.

NVDA20.5%
TSM18.3%
ASML15.7%
AVGO13.8%
MU12%
VRT9.7%

Only B

And the mirror of it.

GEV17.9%
CEG16.9%
VST14.4%
ETN13%
NEE11.3%
PWR10.5%
A above, B below
NVDA20.5%
TSM18.3%
ASML15.7%
AVGO13.8%
MU12%
VRT9.7%
SGOV10%
GEV17.9%
CEG16.9%
VST14.4%
ETN13%
NEE11.3%
PWR10.5%
SGOV16%
Lead positionConviction, descendingBallastWidths are weights · total 100%