How concentrated this is
Holdings7
Weighted like5.8 equal ones
LargestADM at 26.4%
Half the portfolio3 names
Exposed to the premise78%
78% of this book is one theme. It is a bet on Food and agriculture, not a spread of them.
Yield growth slows while demand rises, so the value moves to inputs, seeds and processing.
Only 1 term in your premise matched this theme (seed). The match is weak — check the holdings carefully or rewrite the premise more specifically.
Universe v2 (assumed — this link predates the field)· No stated date on this link
Every holding, and why it is that size
Restore the portfolio26.4%Archer-Daniels-Midland
Processing and trading; paid on volume, not on price.
ADM · Equity · $86.55 · — · Food and agriculture
−+×12.9%Deere
Equipment plus precision agriculture software on top of it.
DE · Equity · $677.21 · — · Food and agriculture
−+×12.1%Corteva
Seed genetics and crop protection, the actual yield lever.
CTVA · Equity · $84.75 · — · Food and agriculture
−+×9.2%Nutrien
Fertiliser at scale, fully exposed to the price cycle.
NTR · Equity · $80.72 · — · Food and agriculture
−+×9.2%Agriculture Fund
Direct soft-commodity exposure without an operating company.
DBA · ETF · $29.00 · — · Food and agriculture
−+×8.2%Mosaic
Phosphate and potash, the most cyclical link in the chain.
MOS · Equity · $26.21 · — · Food and agriculture
−+×22%Gold Trust
A hedge that does not depend on this thesis being right.
GLD · Commodity · $403.35 · — · Ballast
The case for
Arable land per person keeps falling and weather volatility raises the cost of a bad year. Seed genetics, fertiliser and irrigation are the levers left, and all three are concentrated among a handful of suppliers.
The case against
Agriculture is brutally cyclical and politically managed everywhere. One good harvest resets prices, and subsidy regimes can rewrite the economics overnight.
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