How concentrated this is
Holdings7
Weighted like5.9 equal ones
LargestADM at 22.2%
Half the book3 names
Exposed to the premise78%
78% of this book is one theme. It is a bet on Food and agriculture, not a spread of them.
Yield growth slows while demand rises, so the value moves to inputs, seeds and processing.
Only 1 term in your premise matched this theme (seed). The match is weak — check the holdings carefully or rewrite the premise more specifically.
Universe v2 (assumed — this link predates the field)· No stated date on this link
Every holding, and why it is that size
Restore the book22.2%Archer-Daniels-Midland
Processing and trading; paid on volume, not on price.
ADM · Equity · $481.71 · $46B · Food and agriculture
−+×16.3%Deere
Equipment plus precision agriculture software on top of it.
DE · Equity · $461.41 · $5B · Food and agriculture
−+×15.3%Corteva
Seed genetics and crop protection, the actual yield lever.
CTVA · Equity · $158.05 · $74B · Food and agriculture
−+×11.7%Nutrien
Fertiliser at scale, fully exposed to the price cycle.
NTR · Equity · $507.99 · $77B · Food and agriculture
−+×7.2%Agriculture Fund
Direct soft-commodity exposure without an operating company.
DBA · ETF · $58.04 · $191B · Food and agriculture
−+×5.3%Mosaic
Phosphate and potash, the most cyclical link in the chain.
MOS · Equity · $57.67 · $24B · Food and agriculture
−+×22%Gold Trust
A hedge that does not depend on this thesis being right.
GLD · Commodity · $403.35 · — · Ballast
The case for
Arable land per person keeps falling and weather volatility raises the cost of a bad year. Seed genetics, fertiliser and irrigation are the levers left, and all three are concentrated among a handful of suppliers.
The case against
Agriculture is brutally cyclical and politically managed everywhere. One good harvest resets prices, and subsidy regimes can rewrite the economics overnight.
What the weights are worth
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igitur.xyz/b/yield-growth-slows-while-demand-rises-12cbqclOr fix it to a date
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