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Medicine shifts from treating disease late to extending the years a person stays healthy.

HealthspanModerateUp to 10 years6 holdingsConfidence 68%2 removed1 reweighted
Universe v1 (assumed — this link predates the field)· No stated date on this link
igitur.xyz/b/medicine-shifts-from-treating-disease-late-moqte7
LLY27.2%
NVO21.7%
REGN13.6%
TMO13.2%
XBI8.3%
SGOV16%
Lead positionConviction, descendingBallastWidths are weights · total 100%

Every holding, and why it is that size

Restore the book
27.2%Eli Lilly
The broadest metabolic franchise and deepest follow-on pipeline.
LLY · Equity · $370.14 · $2.38T · Healthspan
+×
21.7%Novo Nordisk
The other half of the metabolic duopoly, with more pricing exposure.
NVO · Equity · $32.58 · $10B · Healthspan
+×
13.6%Regeneron
An antibody platform that has produced beyond one franchise.
REGN · Equity · $185.13 · $5B · Healthspan
+×
13.2%Thermo Fisher Scientific
Tools and reagents; paid whether or not a trial reads out.
TMO · Equity · $166.52 · $16B · Healthspan
+×
8.3%Biotech ETF
Spread across small-cap biotech, where single-name risk is brutal.
XBI · ETF · $8.62 · $69B · Healthspan
+×
16%0–3 Month Treasury Bill ETF
Cash that still earns while the thesis is early.
SGOV · Treasury · $161.00 · $106B · Ballast
The case for
Metabolic drugs turned out to affect far more than weight. Sequencing costs fell far enough to make genetic medicine economic, and the payer is a demographic wave already here.
The case against
Drug pricing is a political target in every developed market. Patents expire on schedule, trials fail late and expensively, and the largest products already carry near-perfect expectations.

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