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Launch becomes cheap and routine enough that orbit turns into infrastructure rather than an event.

Orbital logisticsAggressive5–10 years5 holdingsConfidence 54%3 removed1 reweighted
Universe v1 (assumed — this link predates the field)· No stated date on this link
igitur.xyz/b/launch-becomes-cheap-and-routine-enough-ka4o9c
LMT26.8%
IRDM23.5%
LUNR22.2%
ARKX17.5%
SGOV10%
Lead positionConviction, descendingBallastWidths are weights · total 100%

Every holding, and why it is that size

Restore the book
26.8%Lockheed Martin
Space revenue attached to a business that survives a slow decade.
LMT · Equity · $91.81 · $599B · Orbital logistics
+×
23.5%Iridium Communications
An operating constellation with real cash flow today.
IRDM · Equity · $1199.14 · $50B · Orbital logistics
+×
22.2%Intuitive Machines
Lunar delivery contracts, dependent on one customer.
LUNR · Equity · $95.13 · $30B · Orbital logistics
+×
17.5%Space Exploration ETF
Diversification where single-name failure is common.
ARKX · ETF · $791.68 · $18B · Orbital logistics
+×
10%0–3 Month Treasury Bill ETF
Cash that still earns while the thesis is early.
SGOV · Treasury · $161.00 · $106B · Ballast
The case for
Cost per kilogram has fallen by more than an order of magnitude and keeps falling. Once launch is routine the value moves to payloads: connectivity, imaging and defence bought on long government contracts.
The case against
The dominant launch provider is private, so public exposure is second-best by construction. Most listed names are pre-revenue, and a single failure resets a company by years.

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igitur.xyz/b/launch-becomes-cheap-and-routine-enough-ka4o9c
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