How concentrated this is
Holdings4
Weighted like3.5 equal ones
LargestARKX at 36.0%
Half the portfolio2 names
Exposed to the premise90%
Half of this book is 2 names. If they are wrong, the rest will not save it.
Launch becomes cheap and routine enough that orbit turns into infrastructure rather than an event.
This link was built against universe v1, and the published universe is now v2. Conviction scores and holdings may have been revised since, so the portfolio below is not necessarily the one that was shared. See what changed.
Universe v1· No stated date on this link
Every holding, and why it is that size
Restore the portfolio36%Space Exploration ETF
Diversification where single-name failure is common.
ARKX · ETF · $31.66 · — · Orbital logistics
−+×27%Planet Labs
Imaging as a subscription rather than a hardware sale.
PL · Equity · $16.69 · — · Orbital logistics
−+×27%Intuitive Machines
Lunar delivery contracts, dependent on one customer.
LUNR · Equity · $14.62 · — · Orbital logistics
−+×10%0–3 Month Treasury Bill ETF
Cash that still earns while the thesis is early.
SGOV · Treasury · $100.50 · — · Ballast
The case for
Cost per kilogram has fallen by more than an order of magnitude and keeps falling. Once launch is routine the value moves to payloads: connectivity, imaging and defence bought on long government contracts.
The case against
The dominant launch provider is private, so public exposure is second-best by construction. Most listed names are pre-revenue, and a single failure resets a company by years.
What the weights are worth
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igitur.xyz/b/launch-becomes-cheap-and-routine-enough-ka4o9c