The case for
Datacentres, electrified transport and reshored manufacturing pull on the same wires. Generation adds in months; transmission and interconnection take most of a decade. Scarcity accrues to whoever holds capacity or builds the equipment.
Electricity demand grows for the first time in twenty years, and the grid cannot be built quickly.
Universe v1· No stated date on this link
Every holding, and why it is that size
Restore the book21.9%GE Vernova
Turbines and grid equipment; the order book is the constraint.
GEV · Equity · $513.62 · $19B · Grid and load growth
−+×20.6%Constellation Energy
Existing baseload under contracts signed before the shortage.
CEG · Equity · $899.87 · $19B · Grid and load growth
−+×17.5%Vistra
Merchant generation with direct exposure to power prices.
VST · Equity · $598.27 · $475B · Grid and load growth
−+×12.7%Quanta Services
Someone has to physically build the transmission; this is who.
PWR · Equity · $146.72 · $240B · Grid and load growth
−+×6.2%Utilities Select Sector ETF
The sector floor, for the part that is simply more electricity.
XLU · ETF · $216.11 · $2.20T · Grid and load growth
−+×5.1%First Solar
Domestic panel supply, exposed to policy in both directions.
FSLR · Equity · $129.20 · $5B · Grid and load growth
−+×16%0–3 Month Treasury Bill ETF
Cash that still earns while the thesis is early.
SGOV · Treasury · $161.00 · $106B · Ballast
The case against
Utilities are rate-regulated, so upside is capped by regulators answering to voters with rising bills. Load forecasts have been wrong before and much of the demand is announced rather than contracted.
What the weights are worth
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This book has an address
Anyone who opens it rebuilds the same book, weight for weight.
igitur.xyz/b/electricity-demand-grows-for-the-first-1evirxa