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Compute is the binding constraint on artificial intelligence, not model design.

Compute buildoutAggressive3–5 years6 holdingsConfidence 54%4 removed2 reweighted
Universe v1 (assumed — this link predates the field)· No stated date on this link
igitur.xyz/b/compute-is-the-binding-constraint-on-1whzpop
TSM25.7%
MU24.3%
VRT17.8%
ANET14.7%
SMCI7.5%
SGOV10%
Lead positionConviction, descendingBallastWidths are weights · total 100%

Every holding, and why it is that size

Restore the book
25.7%Taiwan Semiconductor
Leading-edge dies are fabricated here or they are not fabricated.
TSM · Equity · $76.43 · $58B · Compute buildout
−+×
24.3%Micron
High-bandwidth memory is the second bottleneck after the die.
MU · Equity · $80.69 · $2.72T · Compute buildout
−+×
17.8%Vertiv
Power and cooling inside the rack, where density fails first.
VRT · Equity · $17.34 · $5B · Compute buildout
−+×
14.7%Arista Networks
The switching fabric between accelerators.
ANET · Equity · $18.34 · $2.20T · Compute buildout
−+×
7.5%Super Micro Computer
Integration and assembly — real volume, thinnest moat in the chain.
SMCI · Equity · $3.76 · $330B · Compute buildout
−+×
10%0–3 Month Treasury Bill ETF
Cash that still earns while the thesis is early.
SGOV · Treasury · $161.00 · $106B · Ballast
The case for
Frontier training runs are gated by physical supply, not ideas. Leading-edge capacity is booked years out, high-bandwidth memory is sold before it is made, and grid interconnection queues run for years. Anything on that critical path collects the toll.
The case against
Every capex supercycle in semiconductors has ended in a glut. Efficiency gains, smaller models and custom silicon all cut the accelerators needed per unit of intelligence, and buyers are a handful of firms who can pause in one quarter.

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