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Compute is the binding constraint on artificial intelligence, not model design.

Compute buildoutAggressive3–5 years4 holdingsConfidence 54%6 removed

This link was built against universe v1, and the published universe is now v2. Conviction scores and holdings may have been revised since, so the book below is not necessarily the one that was shared. See what changed.

Universe v1· No stated date on this link
igitur.xyz/b/compute-is-the-binding-constraint-on-1whzpop
AVGO36%
NVDA27%
TSM27%
SGOV10%
Lead positionConviction, descendingBallastWidths are weights · total 100%

Every holding, and why it is that size

Restore the book
36%Broadcom
Custom accelerators for buyers who want off a single vendor's price list.
AVGO · Equity · $145.87 · $211B · Compute buildout
−+×
27%Nvidia
Sits on the critical path of nearly every frontier training run.
NVDA · Equity · $7.24 · $52B · Compute buildout
−+×
27%Taiwan Semiconductor
Leading-edge dies are fabricated here or they are not fabricated.
TSM · Equity · $76.43 · $58B · Compute buildout
−+×
10%0–3 Month Treasury Bill ETF
Cash that still earns while the thesis is early.
SGOV · Treasury · $161.00 · $106B · Ballast
The case for
Frontier training runs are gated by physical supply, not ideas. Leading-edge capacity is booked years out, high-bandwidth memory is sold before it is made, and grid interconnection queues run for years. Anything on that critical path collects the toll.
The case against
Every capex supercycle in semiconductors has ended in a glut. Efficiency gains, smaller models and custom silicon all cut the accelerators needed per unit of intelligence, and buyers are a handful of firms who can pause in one quarter.

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