How concentrated this is
Holdings7
Weighted like6.4 equal ones
LargestNVDA at 21.7%
Half the portfolio3 names
Exposed to the premise90%
90% of this book is one theme. It is a bet on Compute buildout, not a spread of them.
Compute is the binding constraint on artificial intelligence, not model design.
This link was built against universe v1, and the published universe is now v2. Conviction scores and holdings may have been revised since, so the portfolio below is not necessarily the one that was shared. See what changed.
Universe v1· No stated date on this link
Every holding, and why it is that size
Restore the portfolio21.7%Nvidia
Sits on the critical path of nearly every frontier training run.
NVDA · Equity · $218.97 · — · Compute buildout
−+×18.3%Taiwan Semiconductor
Leading-edge dies are fabricated here or they are not fabricated.
TSM · Equity · $428.03 · — · Compute buildout
−+×15.7%ASML
Sole supplier of EUV lithography; there is no second source.
ASML · Equity · $1687.43 · — · Compute buildout
−+×13.8%Broadcom
Custom accelerators for buyers who want off a single vendor's price list.
AVGO · Equity · $360.83 · — · Compute buildout
−+×10.8%Micron
High-bandwidth memory is the second bottleneck after the die.
MU · Equity · $977.41 · — · Compute buildout
−+×9.7%Vertiv
Power and cooling inside the rack, where density fails first.
VRT · Equity · $248.13 · — · Compute buildout
−+×10%0–3 Month Treasury Bill ETF
Cash that still earns while the thesis is early.
SGOV · Treasury · $100.50 · — · Ballast
The case for
Frontier training runs are gated by physical supply, not ideas. Leading-edge capacity is booked years out, high-bandwidth memory is sold before it is made, and grid interconnection queues run for years. Anything on that critical path collects the toll.
The case against
Every capex supercycle in semiconductors has ended in a glut. Efficiency gains, smaller models and custom silicon all cut the accelerators needed per unit of intelligence, and buyers are a handful of firms who can pause in one quarter.
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igitur.xyz/b/compute-is-the-binding-constraint-on-1whzpop